The 2020 Tour de France will see a level of unpredictability that we have never seen before. Due to the coronavirus pause in racing, many guys have simply not got enough race miles in their legs  to sustain their fitness over a 3 week long stage race, never mind, one of the most difficult Tours in recent memory. 

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Consequently, many of the veteran riders who generally need more race miles to prepare for a major stage race will be on the back foot for the first 2 weeks. Traditionally, the Tour slowly builds over 3 weeks with the last week containing the hardest stages. This year, however, the course is littered with difficult mountain stages over each of the 3 weeks. A slow starting rider will suffer greatly in the early stages and possibly lose chunks of time. Conversely, a guy who starts the race ‘on fire’ and lights up the early mountain stages will undoubtably fizzle towards the end when high altitude finishes make it impossible to hide. 

As we have seen in the preparation races such as Vuelta a Burgos, Criterium du Dauphiné, Tour de l’Ain & Route d’Occitanie the young guns seem to have adapted much better to the intensity of jumping back into stage racing. Even young contenders such as Egan Bernal have had to back away and skip the final stage of Dauphine ‘due to a re-occurring back injury’ – if we can believe that. There are many experienced riders who we expect to have their teams at the fore, controlling breaks and managing their leaders’ energy expenditure. However, there are simply too many wild cards at play for teams to chase everything down and I expect to see daily scenarios developing on the road where team Directors will be thinking on their feet and adjusting strategy on the fly.

With this in mind, here is a short list of GC underdogs whom I think will show us something special during this year’s Tour.

Pavel Sivakov (Ineos Grenadiers)  

The pressure will be on Bernal but the other 23 year old ‘backup’ GC rider on Ineos will rise through and eventually Brailsford will have to support him as their overall contender. 2^nd to Bernal at Occitanie and 11th at Dauphiné, Sivakov is primed to be the leader should Bernal show any signs of a ‘re-occuring back injury!'

Lennard Kamna (BORA-hangrohe)  

In a similar scenario to Bernal/Sivkov, Kamna has been brought in as Emanuel Buchmann’s lieutenant. However, after riding steady in Burgos and an overall improvement in the Dauphiné, Kamna (another 23 year old) is primed for a peak in the 3^rd week of September, especially for the final GC stage on September 19 which includes both of his specialities, climbing and time trialing. 

Warren Barguil (Arkea-Samsic)  

Barguil has ostensibly been brought in to support Nairo Quintana at the Colombian's new second-division team. However, after watching Barguil dance on his pedals in the front groups of the Dauphiné and Occitanie while Quintana faded, I have high hopes for this lieutenant to rise above. 

Guillaume Martin (Confidis) 

Quite possibly the revelation of the Covid season, this Martin (pronounced “martaan”) has been at the forefront of each race that he’s entered in August. Third at Ventoux, 8th at l’Ain and 3rd overall at the Dauphiné, his form leading up to the Tour will need to be carefully managed by his very experienced Director, Cedric Vasseur. 

Michael Gogl (NTT)  

The 26 year old Austrian didn’t finish Dauphiné as many riders outside of the top 20 (and UCI points) pulled into their hotels just before the last climb , but this last weekend, he placed 3^rd at the Austrian National Championships showing he’s on form. NTT’s team is a bit of an open book for this year’s tour, freeing a GC rider like Gogl to ride for himself. 

Miguel Ángel López (Astana)  

26^th at Occitanie, 12^th at Ventoux and climbing to 5^th at Dauphiné, 26 year old Lopez is due for an excellent Tour result overall. The amount of climbing and mountain top finishes favours a climber who’s on form and based on what we saw at Dauphiné, we’re in for some fireworks from this 26 year old.

Sergio Higuita (EF Pro Cycling)

As usual, EF has hedged their bets and gone with a mix of stage winners and a GC contender in Rigoberto Uran. For some reason, they’ve left Michael Woods of the team, but (and this is a big but) the steeper, intense high altitude ascents are going to favour someone like 23 year old (there’s that age again!) Columbian, Higuita who’s already proven his climbing prowess this year by winning the Tour of Columbia in February. He had a quiet Dauphiné, in the service of eventual winner Dani Martinez, just what he needed to round out his form before September’s storm.